Stop looking at the device for sometime and just watch what Apple is doing around the iPhone. Go to iTunes App Store and you’ll know why I am saying what I am saying.
The new App Store has unveiled over 500 third party applications for the iPhone. Add to it, almost 25% of these 500 new applications are free. A lot of the remaining cost less than USD 10!
I am not going to talk about all the new games that you can download because many phones already do it and iPhone is expected to and does it rather well. But I would like to mention the specialized programs that can even help you access business analytics in Oracle database. iPhone no longer seems to be just a looker, it is turning into a great business doer as well.
What I see happening is that iPhone is covering the spectrum of multiple applications much faster than its other Smart Phone counterparts. What about BlackBerry? Well, despite its advertising and many new colours (pink is noteworthy!) as we see below here – BlackBerry is still essentially a business phone that my mom and girlfriend won’t buy. But iPhone is a kind of smart phone that my mother, girlfriend and even my brother would happily buy. Why? Now it is difficult to slot it as fun only. It can do both - fun and work equally well.
However there is something more important that is dawning upon me (rather late!). It is that the future of mobile phones is not about the shell the (hardware). Thus unlike today when you have a colourful phone for girls and a dark grey phone for the executive or a large screen phone for the movie buff or the great speaker edition for the music crazy; tomorrow’s phones could essentially come in different sizes and shapes but standard hardware capabilities (ps: no matter how many diverse applications we might develop, people I suppose, would still desire a basic minimum diversity of design). Standard does not mean lowest common denominator. In the future one could choose from among many available applications as per ones needs. So you and I could be holding similar looking phones but they might not be geared to do the same stuff. In other words, function would finally be freed from form.
What’s great about it? For starters I would not be forced to buy a funky looking phone just because I like music. I can buy a more regular looking phone but it could well do a great job for me on music sharing, downloading, sorting etc.
Or I need not buy a boring looking phone just because I need to check my store’s inventory on the move. The other interesting thing about newer applications is that it makes an old phone feel new. It is almost like a video game console being as good and exciting as the games titles that are released for it!
One question.
Why have we still not achieved this kind of freedom (function independent of form) in desktop or laptop computing devices?
Because PC applications, have been dominated mainly by one software company viz. Microsoft. In the computing arena we are still carrying Microsoft influenced enterprise legacy on our shoulders.
Microsoft started with enterprise software applications and it still makes things from that mindset. Because software applications were originally developed for work more than life, we still have the hangover in the way the largest software company creates these applications. Although we can never be thankful enough to Microsoft for all the progress that they offered from the dull and gloomy days of DOS prompt, to the new icon driven applications, we still need to shift gears and develop applications that can bring about a similar revolution in PC/Laptop Computing (unless of course if mobile phones become the PCs of the future as many of us believe).
Monday, August 04, 2008
Why iPhone will keep eating into BlackBerry’s market share
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4 comments:
I think the function independent of form for PC's that you are talking about already exists. Look at the change in scenario coming about. We use so many web based apps. In my company atleast. We use Google Apps to host email (not outlook), we try using Google Docs or Zoho Docs as often as possible (not MS Office), for invoicing we use a web based invoicing tool, for Project Management we use a brilliant tool called Deskaway - it helps us simplify teamwork, it helps us manage projects, create milestones, tasks, responsibilities etc. - and it also acts like an online repository for client info (you should check it out). Then there is also slideshare on which we host our slideshows. I dont use Dreamweaver to customize my code - i do right off Wordpress. I use Wordpress/Blogger to help me convert text to code. I also use Comiqs.com to make comics and if the online version of photoshop becomes better along with my bandwidth - then il chuck the CS3 version from my laptop as well!
Point is - web based tools are making this revolution happen where multiple applications are being developed to satisfy multiple needs - almost to an extent of mass customization to the finest detail. It's fantastic.
Case in point - check out FireFox and the various Plugins - the directory and the use of some plugins is brilliant. FF has created a developer community that Apple can only dream of.
Thanks
You are right Harshil. Web based application are the precursor to the freeing of function from the form in the Personal Computing Arena. I would be happy to see more of these being as mainstream enterprise solutions and everyday home applications. Part of the fact that they still do not dominate the market is perhaps to do with the fact that they are relatively new in the market and another part of it is to do with enterprise inertia to shift – the risk is bigger for a large enterprise than for a start up or home business.
Also, I am curious how the market would be in the next 10 years. Would it be still dominated by one big application software company with many 'others' competing for the rest of 10-20% of the market or could it be that the stage shifts to web based applications.
I am also curious how platforms like Firefox make money. If money is not the motive than can it becomes a mainstream business model in the future? This is something that puts me in two minds about opensource. Is it commerce or plain activism to block dominance of big players, many times suppoered on the sly by another big brother who wants to counter the current number one?
Saurabh,
I think your concerns with OpenSource are valid. But i think plain activism led open source is not necessarily a reality that can be supported for too long. The world is too small and the buzzworthiness of information is much higher. It takes some time before Open Source becomes consumer friendly and the people who jump on to it initially tend to be more opinionated, more experimental and i would also say a lot smarter at a certain level. They would get the news if the open source project is activism led - and if the community decides that it's fine - so be it. You cannot dictate/ change the market, can you? And i think plain activism will not work at all - the open source project has to have some tangible benefit. Only then will people look to use/ contribute. It's sort of a chain reaction, isn't it?
Pseudo open source movements today are being championed by companies such as Google, Apple, (now) Rediff and Facebook - which i think is good for their businesses and in the long run also better for consumer because one is ensured that a market is created and if consumers find something valuable, returns are reaped (although there may be imperfections and these techonomies are not as 'free' as they should be).
Also, i think developers will flock to locations and develop open source to a large extent only if they are able to answer the question 'What's in it for me' - so for example, a lot of web development companies i know have developed an app on Facebook that they seek to make viral or they have a Firefox plugin that is really useful - then these open source economies become great to showcase skills with respect to platform and customer understanding for companies (just like our respective content and idea creation companies may keep a blog etc.) and consumers also benefit. Multiple small businesses are building on each other to create an eco - system that is mutually beneficial which i think is great. My economic understanding is still not sound enough to highlight glaring pitfalls - maybe you could enlighten me on that.
This i think is also a fundamental shift in the way we think. This may sound like faff but i genuinely believe that because of the internet and the openness of the weboconomy we have become a lot more utilitarian. In terms of the monetization bit - i think it is going to become difficult for more people to monetize more things because there (has always been) but there will be more stress on the intangible value of things.
I dont know how the market would be in the next 10 years but i certainly would like to see user groups using different kind of tailor made applications by different companies. But i suspect that will not be the case, we humans are a lazy, unadventurous lot. Most of us will use many applications by the same company and a few applications here and there by smaller peripheral companies. If one of the peripheral companies becomes very popular then maybe we will use more applications by that company. We are, i think (and i hope) on the long road to multiplicity of application use. I sincerely hope, that as mankind we can shatter the idea of '3-4 big players rule a market' - especially on the web. Hopefully, better distribution channels and more emphasis on Word of Mouth online because of obvious changes in the communication eco system, economies of scope will be higher.
I cant wait for tomorrow - and i love today.
Harshil, your point of view is a rich post in itself. Thanks for sharing you thoughts here. I love the way you have ended " Love today; Can't wait for tomorrow". Very well articulated.
You are also right about the fact that Web will and is opening new vistas into numerous utilities.
On one hand we have this huge centrifugal force of open source that is brewing diversity, enabling newer niches, getting more and more 'micro' - a dream come true for many a advanced user. And on the other hand there is the impending challenge of a basic standard or operation. A basic common ground that can integrate everything seamlessly (without making us compromise too much!). By everything I mean Internet and Mobile Applications on one side and the new genre of RFID enabled devices and static objects that would need a common grammar to relate to, so as to be able to help everything in the room (and outside) to talk to everything else.
When your shoes will talk to my friends wristwatch - we would need both of them to agree on a basic grammar for their language of communication and operation.
As computing becomes ubiquitous we would need much more interoperability and greater the interoperability the deeper perhaps would be the need for a standard. I know that this word Standard sounds too Microsoftish, but I am sure that the future would not hinge on one enterprise to dictate the 'spelling' of the new universal communication Standard.
Lot of action awaits and I am quite excited!
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