5 Questions for 2009

It’s the start of a New Year – many trend reports, many forecasts, many personal resolutions and horoscopes too!

I have five questions that I am keen to find answers to and look I forward to watch these closely, in the New Year.

Geopolitics
1. Will China begin to engage in world affairs like the US (in some way)?
For example sending her troops to play a role beyond protecting its geographic territories?
Would China’s increasing engagement in Africa, lead to one situation when they would have to send a larger number of her troops to protect her business interests in far off lands and seas? Would this become more than the few naval ships that they have dispatched to protect the Chinese Merchant Vessels from the Somali pirates
What would be the UN (US) reaction to China’s increasing dominance of a greater region?

2. Would Iran get the bomb or start to become a great business ally of China?
The latter – China-Iran nexus could be a part of Obama administration’s grand plan to help diffuse tension in the middle east by bringing in China as a ally to negotiate peace and denuclearization. All this in order to secure economic stability for the US, through special trade & finance deals with China.
China gets a foot-hold in ‘the oil region’ while US secures a speedier exit from the downturn.

World Economy
3. Will we witness the rise of a substantive alternative to the US Dollar?
The financial meltdown that began its journey from the strongest economy in the world, also left the US Dollar in the cold. Would this trend continue & lead to alternative currency(ies) for global money exchange?

Global Security
4. Would the world really do something concrete to purge terrorism (of any kind) from the face of this planet?
Would the new & democratically elected government under the leadership of Asaf Ali Zardari be able to start the process of freeing Pakistan (and the world) from the clutches of Islamic fundamentalism? Would his administration be able to reduce the dominance of the armed forces in running that country?


Brands
5. Will Nokia be able to regain her global ‘image leadership’ in the mobile devices business?
Especially given the way consumer expectations have heightened in the ‘post iPhone era’?
Nokia has a slew of new (and exciting) products lined-up for 2009. But more importantly 2009 might be the year when the world would be able to see what Nokia has been working on for many months – mobile services. Services which made Nokia say that she is no longer just a device maker but an ‘Internet Company’!

This list of questions is not comprehensive in any way – however in true spirit of a short post I would keep the rest of the questions for some other occasion.

We’ll look back at these questions in the last week of 2009. Happy New Year!